Global Issues
Population
Our growing population
The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998. The world’s population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
This dramatic growth has been driven largely by increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age, the gradual increase in human lifespan, increasing urbanization, and accelerating migration. Major changes in fertility rate have accompanied this growth. These trends will have far-reaching implications for generations to come.
On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.
China and India: most populous countries
China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) remain the two most populous countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, each representing nearly 18 percent of the world’s population, respectively. However, in April 2023, India’s population was expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China.
India's population is expected to keep growing for several decades. Meanwhile, China's population recently reached its maximum size and has shown a decline since 2022. According to projections, the number of people in China will continue to decrease and may fall below 1 billion before the end of the century. (Source: UN DESA Policy Brief No. 153)
The world in 2100
The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. As with any type of projection, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding these latest population projections. These figures are based on the medium projection variant, which assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent, as well as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average. Survival prospects are also projected to improve in all countries.
Africa: fastest growing continent
More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double by 2050. A rapid population increase in Africa is anticipated even if there is a substantial reduction of fertility levels in the near future. Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding future trends in fertility in Africa, the large number of young people currently on the continent, who will reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own, ensures that the region will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades.
Shrinking population in Europe
In sharp contrast, the populations of 61 countries or areas in the world are expected to decrease by 2050, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least ten per cent. Several countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades.
Factors influencing the population growth
Fertility rates
Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take. According to the World Population Prospects (2022 Revision), global fertility is projected to fall from 2.3 children per woman in 2021 to 2.1 in 2050.
Increasing longevity
Overall, significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved in recent years. Globally, life expectancy at birth is expected to rise from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050. While considerable progress has been made in closing the longevity differential between countries, large gaps remain. In 2021, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.
International migration
International migration is a much smaller component of population change than births or deaths. However, in some countries and areas the impact of migration on population size is significant, namely in countries that send or receive large numbers of economic migrants and those affected by refugee flows. Between 2010 and 2021, seventeen countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.
United Nations role in population issues
The United Nations system has long been involved in addressing these complex and interrelated issues – notably, through the work of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
UN Population Division
The UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs pulls together information on such issues as international migration and development, urbanization, world population prospects and policies, and marriage and fertility statistics. It supports UN bodies such as the Commission on Population and Development, and supports implementation of the Programme of Action adopted by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (IPCD).
The Population Division prepares the official United Nations demographic estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world, helps States build capacity to formulate population policies, and enhances coordination of related UN system activities through its participation in the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.
UN Population Fund
The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) started operations in 1969 to assume a leading role within the UN system in promoting population programmes, based on the human right of individuals and couples to freely determine the size of their families. At the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), its mandate was fleshed out in greater detail, to give more emphasis to the gender and human rights dimensions of population issues, and UNFPA was given the lead role in helping countries carry out the Conference’s Programme of Action. UNFPA now works in the areas of sexual and reproductive health, human rights and gender equality, population and development and has programmes for youth.
On the issue of population, the United Nations has held three conferences, two special sessions of the General Assembly and a summit in 2019.
World Population Day is observed annually on 11 July. It marks the date, in 1987, when the world’s population hit the 5 billion mark.
全球問題
人口
我們不斷增長的人口
世界人口是 20 世紀中葉的三倍多。全球人口從 1950 年的估計 25 億人增加到 2022 年 11 月中旬的 80 億人,自 2010 年以來增加了 10 億人,自 1998 年以來增加了 20 億人。預計未來 30 年世界人口將增加近 20 億人,從目前的 80 億增加到 2050 年的 97 億,並可能在 2080 年代中期達到近 104 億的峰值。
這種急劇增長主要是由於存活到育齡人口的增加、人類壽命的逐漸延長、城市化進程的加快和移民的加速。生育率的重大變化伴隨著這種增長。這些趨勢將對子孫後代產生深遠影響。
八十億日
2022 年 11 月 15 日,世界人口達到 80 億,這是人類發展的一個里程碑。全球人口從 70 億增長到 80 億需要 12 年時間,但到 2037 年大約需要 15 年才能達到 90 億,這表明全球人口的整體增長率正在放緩。然而,一些國家的生育率仍然很高。生育率最高的國家往往是人均收入最低的國家。因此,隨著時間的推移,全球人口增長越來越集中在世界上最貧窮的國家,其中大多數位於撒哈拉以南非洲。
中國和印度:人口最多的國家
中國(14億)和印度(14 億)仍然是世界上人口最多的兩個國家,都擁有超過10億人口,分別佔世界人口的近18%。然而,到 2023 年 4 月,印度的人口預計將達到 1,425,775,850 人,與中國大陸人口持平並超過。
預計印度的人口將在幾十年內保持增長。與此同時,中國的人口最近達到了最大規模,自 2022 年以來呈下降趨勢。據預測,中國的人口數量將繼續減少,到本世紀末可能會下降到10億以下。(來源:聯合國經社部政策簡報第 153 號)
2100 年的世界
預計 2030 年世界人口將達到 85 億,到 2050 年將進一步增加到 97 億,到 2100 年將增加到 104 億。與任何類型的預測一樣,這些最新的人口預測也存在一定程度的不確定性。這些數位基於中等預測變體,該變體假設大家庭仍然普遍存在的國家的生育率下降,而平均每名婦女生育率少於兩個孩子的一些國家的生育率略有增加。預計所有國家的生存前景也將有所改善.
非洲:增長最快的大陸
從現在到 2050 年,全球人口增長的一半以上預計將發生在非洲。非洲是主要地區中人口增長率最高的地區。預計到 2050 年,撒哈拉以南非洲的人口將會雙倍。即使在不久的將來生育率水準大幅下降,預計非洲的人口也會迅速增長。 儘管非洲生育率的未來趨勢存在不確定性,但非洲大陸目前有大量年輕人,他們將在未來幾年成年並擁有自己的孩子,這確保了該地區將在未來幾十年內塑造世界人口的規模和分佈方面發揮核心作用。
歐洲人口萎縮
與此形成鮮明對比的是,到2050年,世界上61個國家或地區的人口預計將減少,其中26個國家或地區的人口可能至少減少10%。預計到 2050 年,一些國家的人口將下降 15% 以上,包括波士尼亞和黑塞哥維那、保加利亞、克羅埃西亞、匈牙利、日本、拉脫維亞、立陶宛、摩爾多瓦共和國、羅馬尼亞、塞爾維亞和烏克蘭。從長遠來看,所有歐洲國家的生育率現在都低於完全替代人口所需的水準(每名婦女約 2.1 個孩子),而且在大多數情況下,生育率幾十年來一直低於更替水準.
影響人口增長的因素
生育率
未來的人口增長在很大程度上取決於未來生育率的走向。根據世界人口展望(2022 年修訂版),全球生育率預計將從 2021 年的每名婦女 2.3 個孩子下降到 2050 年的 2.1 個。
延長使用壽命
總體而言,近年來預期壽命取得了顯著增長。在全球範圍內,出生時預期壽命預計將從 2019 年的 72.8 歲增加到 2050 年的 77.2 歲。 雖然在縮小國家之間的壽命差異方面取得了相當大的進展,但仍然存在巨大差距。2021年,最不發達國家的出生預期壽命比全球平均水準落後 7 年,這主要是由於兒童和孕產婦死亡率居高不下,以及暴力、衝突和愛滋病毒流行的持續影響.
國際移民
國際移民在人口變化中所占的比重比出生或死亡要小得多。然而,在一些國家和地區,移民對人口規模的影響是顯著的,即在發送或接收大量經濟移民的國家以及受難民潮影響的國家。2010 年至 2021 年期間,17 個國家或地區的移民凈流入將超過 100 萬,而 10 個國家將出現類似規模的凈流出。
聯合國在人口問題上的角色
聯合國系統長期以來一直參與解決這些複雜且相互關聯的問題,特別是通過聯合國人口基金 (UNFPA) 和經濟和社會事務部聯合國人口司的工作。
聯合國人口部
經濟和社會事務部聯合國人口部收集有關國際移民和發展、城市化、世界人口前景和政策以及婚姻和生育統計數據等問題的資訊。它支援人口與發展委員會等聯合國機構,並支援實施 1994 年國際人口與發展會議 (IPCD) 通過的行動綱領。 人口部為世界所有國家和地區編製聯合國的官方人口估計和預測,幫助各國建設制定人口政策的能力,並通過參與統計活動協調委員會加強聯合國系統相關活動的協調。
聯合國人口基金
聯合國人口基金 (UNFPA) 於 1969 年開始運作,在聯合國系統內發揮主導作用,以個人和夫婦自由決定家庭規模的人權為基礎,促進人口計劃。在國際人口與發展會議(開羅,1994 年)上,其任務得到了更詳細的闡述,更加強調人口問題的性別和人權層面,人口基金在幫助各國執行會議的行動綱領方面發揮了主導作用。人口基金目前在性和生殖健康、 人權和性別平等、人口和發展,並制定了青年計劃。
在人口問題上,聯合國在 2019 年舉行了三次會議、兩次聯合國大會特別會議和一次峰會。
每年的 7 月 11 日是世界人口日。它標誌著 1987 年世界人口達到 50 億大關。